Hyperbitcoinization
by Knut Svanholm | Jan. 21st, 2021 | vol.9
The weirdest event mankind has ever seen. The theoretical tipping point event in which Bitcoin replaces all other money. When everyone stops using their local currencies and starts using Bitcoin instead.
The Inflation Trap
Bitcoin is an inflationary currency, but its inflation rate decreases over time. In other words, it’s a currency with a fixed issuance cap. You can think of hyperbitcoinization as the inverse of hyperinflation. There’s always a country or two here and there suffering from the horrors of hyperinflation. To tell the truth, we’re all suffering from it, albeit at different speeds. Inflation disincentivizes saving and incentivizes spending. When the inflation rate gets high enough, it prevents saving altogether. You have to spend your money, even if you want to save it. There is no longer such a thing as a savings account at the bank. You’ll have to buy stocks or bonds if you want your pile to grow.
Most people don’t even realize that this is happening. The prices of consumable goods rise over too long periods of time for people to take notice. When housing prices go up, most house owners cheer at how rich they think they’ve become. What they fail to realize is that any potential replacement for their current home has gone up in price as well. Few reflect on the matter and stop to think. “Hang on a minute, my house is ten years older than when I first bought it, shouldn’t its price go down instead of up?”
The Orange Pill
People will wake up though. Quite a few of us already have, but we’re still pretty far from any kind of tipping point. In this latest bull run, mainstream media has kept very quiet about Bitcoin. Since the crash of early 2018 they seem to have decided that Bitcoin is nothing more than one crypto-scam among many. What they fail to see is that bull runs like this have happened before. Bitcoin’s price peaked and dropped in a similar way in late 2013 and several times even earlier than that.
It’s not that strange when you think about it. In each bull run, a lot of people buy bitcoins because of a fear of missing out. People who haven’t yet realized what Bitcoin is or why it is valuable at all. Many of them recall hearing some authoritative figure talking about eggs and baskets. They buy a bunch of shitcoins, get wrecked and decide never to get into “crypto” again. Until they realize that Bitcoin is different, that is.
Since the flow of new bitcoins halves every four years, a new hype is not only likely but almost inevitable. The internet doesn’t forget, even if its users do. Having said that, not even your average Joe internet NPC can forget forever. Sooner or later the orange pill will find its way to each and everyone of them, no matter how hard a pill it is to swallow. When it does, hyperbitcoinization will ensue.
The Cancerous Growth Of The State
Meanwhile, in pre-coiner land, the power of social media and Artificial Intelligence keep disrupting democracy. Democracy was always a flawed concept, but this has never been as obvious as now. Because of social media, the state can't present a coherent narrative anymore. This causes a great divide between the so-called political left and right everywhere. At the same time, the actual policies of the political parties in each country become more and more alike.
Short term thinking and ignorance of praxeology make people vulnerable to propaganda. Populist politics are found on each side of the political aisle. The impending Artificial Intelligence revolution will render a huge amount of professions obsolete. Still, no political force in the world seems to have a plan for what to do about it. The propositions that are actually on the table are Orwellian, but few seem to realize this.
The proposed “solutions” all seem to rely on people becoming more and more dependent on the state. Like the idea of Universal Basic Income. Many prominent entrepreneurs and intellectuals think it’s a good idea. They fail to see that dependency on the state is the most dangerous thing for a society there is. Once a person is dependent on the state for her survival, she's trapped. It's very unlikely that she'll ever vote for any politician that wants to take her livelihood away. She is also unlikely to contribute to that society. People who don’t have to work their behinds off seldom do. This is true for not only the recipients of UBI, but for the entire public sector. It keeps every country’s public sector growing and the process is irreversible.
Donald Trump handed out pandemic relief money to everyone in the US. He's considered to be one of the most “right wing” politicians on earth, yet he acted like a total socialist. Not doing anything would have been the "right" thing to do. No lockdown, no handouts. Nothing. Politicians know that people will vote for them if they give people what people perceive as free stuff. This is not capitalism. It is not even crony capitalism. It is socialism and it's taking over everywhere.
Luckily for people who want to decide their own fate, the ultimate tool for opting out of the whole freak show exists.
Approaching Hyperinflation
Sooner or later, everyone will realize this. Not all the details, but they will notice that something is wrong. As Bitcoiners around the world become richer and everyone else doesn’t, people will wake up. The world economy, as it functions today, is a giant house of cards. It’s founded on nothing but debt and a constant need for new stimuli in the form of more debt is essential for it to work. It funnels money out of the pockets of everyone and into the pockets of those closest to the cash faucet.
In most people’s minds, inflation is somehow a natural phenomenon that we can’t do anything about. In reality, an elite class is stealing everyone else’s time at an unimaginable scale. Now that Bitcoin is around, hyperinflation is no longer the inevitable fate of all nations. Now that Bitcoin is around, we all have a shot at getting off the Titanic before she hits the iceberg. Try to imagine living through hyperinflation. Try to imagine losing a little more hope every single day. It’s hard to imagine what a Venezuelan, a Turk, or an Argentinian is going through right now. But it is happening, and it will happen to your country as well. It cannot not happen.
The Only Lifeboat Left
At the time of writing these words, December 2020, it takes about one and a half minutes for a new bitcoin to come into existence. An unknown part of this bitcoin will end up on the market, but the miner who found it might keep some of it for himself too. After about 40 months from now, three minutes will pass between each new bitcoin. At the same time, new dollars, euros and yuan flow into existence at an unprecedented rate.
The supposed pandemic serves as an excuse for even shorter term economic policies. Begun the currency wars have, as Yoda the Jedi would put it. Sooner, rather than later, humanity will have to wake up. When this happens, the demand for bitcoin will skyrocket. People will start stampeding towards the only lifeboat left on the sinking Star-liner. This, in combination with the ever-decreasing supply, will trigger hyperbitcoinization. All the fear, uncertainty and doubt surrounding Bitcoin will become irrelevant. It will disappear, as people realize that Bitcoin is their only option.
No Turning Back
When hyperbitcoinization begins, Bitcoin's price will skyrocket. Predicting the future is not an easy task, but imagine a macro scale game theoretical prisoner's dilemma. Giant corporations and nation states trying to get on the Bitcoin train first. Necessity is the mother of invention. Once everyone is forced to convert to Bitcoin, there will be no turning back. The current bull run could be the last cyclical bull market in Bitcoin. The bull market that triggers hyperbitcoinization. A very strange ride indeed.
People will not believe their eyes as the price starts moving upward at an ever increasing speed. A media hype will follow, but with a less cynical language than in that of the 2017 bull run. When it becomes obvious that $100k is also an arbitrary number, the run will continue. We'll quickly reach milestone upon milestone, and the powers that be will have little to no time to react. Expect trust in politicians to plummet. Expect civil unrest. But also expect society to adapt fast. The fall of the Soviet Union and the east block of Europe was far more peaceful than what most people expected. This time around, we have the internet and Bitcoin. These tools are much more powerful than we allow ourselves to think. Don't forget that a functioning free market is civilization.
Take Back Control
A world in which Bitcoin acts as everyone's main store of value and unit of account is a better world. Much better. In such a world, responsible investors win. Forcing people to give away their savings is much harder, and fair trade is much easier. A less violent, less wasteful and more prosperous future awaits us all. A few brave souls have already transitioned. Bitcoin rewards early adoption via its natural Number go Up technology. The sooner you realize the inevitability of hyperbitcoinization, the better off you will be on the other side. The other side of humanity's most spectacular moment in time.
Get on the train now, and you'll be able to take back control of your life's steering wheel sooner than you think.
Knut Svanholm is a former tall ship sailor and rock music singer whose book "Bitcoin: Sovereignty through mathematics" is one of the most praised Bitcoin books of 2019. He's appearing as a speaker on the subject internationally more and more often, at events such as Stockholm Fintech Week and the Value of Bitcoin Conference. He writes about the philosophical impacts of Bitcoin and how it can change the world for the better. Besides his work in Bitcoin, Knut is currently a Crew Manager for an offshore industry shipping company.